Big Ten Football Week 4 Betting Odds, Trends & Pick of the Week

Sep 2015

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The big news in the Big Ten last Saturday was Ohio State’s close call against Northern Illinois in a tight 20-13 victory as heavy 34-point home favorite. The Buckeyes remain at the top of this week’s AP national rankings but the gap between themselves and No. 2 Michigan State has been considerable narrowed.

Ohio State will play host to Western Michigan this Saturday and BetOnline has listed the Buckeyes as 31-point favorites this time around with the total set at 58. Following last week’s close call they are now 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games.

Michigan State is also coming off a tougher battle than expected in a 35-21 victory over Air Force as a 24-point home favorite. This Saturday, the Spartans will be at home against Central Michigan and they have been listed as 27-point favorites with the total set at 54. Michigan State has now failed to cover in four of its last six home games.

Northwestern is off to a 3-0 start both SU and ATS that has the Wildcats ranked No. 17 in the current AP Top 25. Last week they hammered-out a 19-10 victory against Duke as 3.5-point underdogs on the road. The Wildcats caught bettor’s eyes right out of the gate with a stunning 16-6 win over Stanford as 10-point underdogs at home in Week 1. This Saturday, Northwestern will host Ball State as an 18.5-point favorite.

One of the more intriguing matchups in the Big Ten this Saturday is No. 22 BYU on the road against Michigan as a 5.5-point underdog. The Cougars have already beaten Nebraska on the road and Boise State at home as slight underdogs and they almost knocked off No. 9 UCLA last Saturday in a tight 24-23 loss as 16.5-point underdogs on the road.

Michigan started its season under new head coach Jim Harbaugh with a 24-17 loss to Utah as a five-point road underdog. Since then, the Wolverines have beaten Oregon State and UNLV by a combined score of 63-14. This should be an excellent test to just how good Michigan really is this year. BYU is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games, while the Wolverines have failed to cover in four of their last six games overall.

Big Ten Pick of the Week

After splitting my first two Big Ten “pick of the week” plays this season I went against Purdue last week and it paid off in Virginia Tech’s 51-24 romp as a 4.5-point road favorite.

This week I am turning my attention to this Saturday’s matchup between Hawaii and No. 22 Wisconsin. The Rainbow Warriors head into Madison as 24.5-point road underdogs with the total set at 51. They are 2-1 on the year both SU and ATS with the lone loss coming in a 38-0 shutout against Ohio State in Week 2 as 42.5-point underdogs on the road. Despite the winning record, the defense has allowed an average of 28.3 points a game as opposed to a scoring average of 25 points a game on offense.

Wisconsin bounced back from a 35-17 opening day loss to Alabama as a 12.5-point underdog with solid wins over Miami (Ohio) and Troy at home by a combined score of 86-3. The Badgers’ starting quarterback Joel Stave has thrown for 666 yards and six touchdowns while completing an impressive 67.4 percent of his 86 attempts. Dare Ogunbowale has led the running game with 196 yards rushing while gaining a solid 5.9 yards per carry.

Hawaii has really struggled on the road with just one SU win in its last 20 games and it is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games overall. Wisconsin is riding a five-game SU winning streak at home and it is 10-2 SU over its last 12 games. Look for the Badgers to keep rolling in this one to easily cover the 24.5-point spread at home.