NFL Monday Night Football Preview & Free Pick- Week 3


Sep 2015

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NFL Monday Night Football Preview & Free Pick- Week 3

Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers

Pointspread: Green Bay -6.5

Total Line: 49

Monday Night Football in Week 3 of the new NFL season takes us to storied Lambeau Field for an inter-conference clash between the 1-1 Kansas City Chiefs and the 2-0 Green Bay Packers. Kickoff is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.

Kansas City had a great chance to go 2-0 to start the season, but it fumbled its way to a 31-24 loss to Denver last Thursday night as a three-point home favorite. This followed a 27-20 Week 1 win against Houston as a one-point road favorite. The total went OVER in both of these games.

The well-rested Chiefs have had quite a long time to stew over that loss, but I am not sure that the time off will work in their favor this Monday night. The loss to the Broncos exposed a major weakness in their passing game, which is now ranked 25th in the NFL in yards gained. You get the feeling that Kansas City is going to have to move the ball downfield with some big plays to keep this game close.

Green Bay moved to 2-0 on the year with a huge 27-17 victory against Seattle this past Sunday night as a 3.5-point home favorite. The Packers opened the season with a hard-fought 31-23 victory over rival Chicago to cover as six-point favorites on the road. The total stayed UNDER 49 against the Seahawks after going OVER 48.5 against the Bears.

It appears to be business as usual for Green Bay on both sides of the ball. The Packers have rolled-up 58 points, which is the fifth-most in the league and their defense is ranked ninth in points allowed. Aaron Rodgers is off to a solid start with 438 yards passing and five touchdown throws and both Eddie Lacy and James Starks have carried the load in the running game.

The Chiefs have been a solid betting team on the road lately with a 12-6 record against the spread in its last 18 road games, but Green Bay has been even better at home with a 7-2 record ATS in its last nine games at Lambeau. To me, there are still a few lingering question marks for Kansas City, while my confidence level in the Packers covering the 6.5 points at home remains high.