NFL Week 1 Betting Odds, Trends & Predictions

Sep 2015

POSTED IN Free Picks & Predictions + NFL Football | no comments

The 2015 NFL regular season gets underway this week and Sunday’s slate is filled with a number of great betting opportunities to cash-in on the games. After breaking down all of this Sunday’s NFL Week 1 matchups using betting odds from BetOnline, the following are my Top 3 picks of week.

Sunday, Sept. 13

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at Chicago Bears

Expectations are running high for the Packers this season after suffering a heart-breaking loss in overtime against Seattle in last season’s NFC title game. The offense was already dealt a major setback with the loss of wide receiver Jordy Nelson with a season-ending knee injury, but the good news heading into Sunday’s season opener is that wide receiver Randall Cobb is now listed as probable after tweaking his knee in the preseason.

The Bears slipped to 5-11 straight-up last season so veteran head coach John Fox was brought in to turn things around. He has had success wherever he has gone, but it could take some time in Chicago given the team he inherited. Particularly in this matchup, the pressure will be dialed-up on a Bears’ defense that was ranked 30^th in the NFL in average yards allowed (377.1) and 31^st in points allowed (27.6).

Green Bay has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this division rivalry SU and it is 8-1 in the last nine games against the spread. This includes a perfect 5-0 record (SU and ATS) against Chicago on the road. Make it six after Sunday afternoon.

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (Under 41.5)

The Panthers have won the last two NFC South Division titles, but there needs to be an asterisk placed next to last season’s 7-8-1 SU record that was good enough to finish on top. One of the big reasons that Carolina finished below .500 was an inconsistent offense that ended the regular season ranked 19^th in the league in scoring with an average of 21.1 points a game.

No team in the NFL scored fewer points than Jacksonville last season with a league-low 15.6 points a game. The future for this offense may be bright with second-year quarterback Blake Bortles leading the way, but it is still going to take some time to turn things around. It does not help matters that free agent tight end Julius Thomas is currently sidelined with a finger injury.

The total has stayed UNDER in five of Jacksonville’s last seven home games and it has also stayed UNDER in four of its last six games overall. I am going that way again in this Sunday’s matchup.

New York Giants (+6) at Dallas Cowboys

The Giants will close-out Sunday’s Week 1 schedule in a prime-time matchup against their bitter NFC East rivals. Both head coach Tom Coughlin and veteran quarterback Eli Manning are well aware that this team needs a fast start out of the gate after posting back-to-back losing seasons. The good news is that this duo was also instrumental in New York’s two Super Bowl victories in 2007 and 2010. Look for second-year wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to come up big on Sunday night as Manning’s favorite target.

Dallas suffered through three-straight .500 seasons before breaking-out last year with a 12-4 SU record and a NFC East title. The biggest difference between this year and 2014 is the loss of All-Pro running back DeMarco Murray, who led the NFL in rushing last season with 1,845 yards. In the absence of a running game, the pressure will be dialed-up on veteran quarterback Tony Romo to do more with a Dallas passing game that was ranked 16^th in the NFL last season.

New York comes into this division clash with a 4-2 record both SU and ATS in its last six road games against Dallas. Stick with the Giants to keep this a three-point game to cover, but do not be surprised if they win this game SU.