NFL Week 4 Betting Odds, Trends & Predictions

Sep 2015

POSTED IN Free Picks & Predictions + NFL Football | no comments

The new NFL regular season is just three weeks old and it has already been filled with a number of surprises for bettor’s both good and bad. On the year, my record for my top picks stands at 5-4 after a posting a disappointing 1-2 record in last week’s picks.

After going back to the drawing board, I have broken down the stats, facts and betting trends for all of this Sunday’s NFL matchups to release this week’s Top 3 Picks using betting odds from BetOnline.

Sunday, Oct. 4

New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (OVER 46.5)

The Giants snapped a two-game losing streak to start the season with a 32-21 victory against Washington last Thursday night in a game that easily went OVER the closing 45-point line. The total has now gone OVER in two of their first three games behind an offense that is averaging 26 points a game combined with a defense that is allowing 24 points.

Buffalo ran all over Miami last Sunday in a 41-14 win to move to 2-1 on the year. Even in the Bills’ lone loss to New England they managed to put 32 points on the board and through the first three weeks of the season they are the third-highest scoring team in the NFL.

When you put all of this offensive firepower together with some of the recent total line betting trends for both teams, it sets the stage for a strong play on the OVER in this game. The total has gone OVER in five of New York’s las t six road games and it has gone OVER in two of the Bills first three games this year.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Washington Redskins

The Eagles limped out of the gate with losses to Atlanta and Dallas as favorites, but they took a step in the right direction last Sunday with a 24-17 win over the New York Jets as three-point road underdogs. Head coach Chip Kelly has basically rebuilt this team from the ground up so this remains a work in progress.

Washington was picked to finish last in the NFC East and last week’s loss to the Giants showed us why. The Redskins’ biggest strength on offense is their running game, but that was stopped in its tracks last week with a total of 88 yards. Washington’s defense also looked suspect against the pass after two strong showings.

Philadelphia has covered against the spread in four of its last six road games against the Redskins and it has won six of the last nine meetings overall straight-up. I am banking on the new-look Eagles to take another step forward this week with a SU win on the road that covers the three points.

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

The Rams caught everyone’s attention in Week 1 with a thrilling 34-31 overtime win against rival Seattle as 3.5-point home underdogs, but they have been dealt a harsh dose of reality the last two weeks in losses to both Washington and Pittsburgh. It is hard to say where they go from here, but there are some definite issues with an offense that is ranked dead-last in the NFL in total yards.

Nothing has gotten in Arizona’s way to a perfect 3-0 start both SU and ATS in which it has outscored its opponents by a combined 77 points. This potent Cardinals’ offense is first in the league in scoring and it is complementing a defense that is ranked fifth in yards allowed (299.7) and third in points allowed (16.3). This is a very dangerous combination for any team to try and get past on the road.

St. Louis brings a 1-5 record both SU and ATS in its last six games into this NFC West showdown and it is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games on the road. The Cardinals have gone 17-7 SU in their last 24 games and they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games at home. Arizona has a 6-2 edge (SU and ATS) over the Rams in the last eight meetings and that trend stays true this Sunday afternoon.