SEC Football Week 5 Betting Odds, Trends & Pick of the Week

Sep 2015

POSTED IN College Football + Free Picks & Predictions | no comments

Through the early going of the new college football season, the SEC continues to dominate the national rankings with seven teams in this week’s AP Top 25. Everything went pretty much according to plan with Ole Miss, Georgia and LSU all getting straight-up wins as Top 10 teams.

The No. 3 Rebels got past Vanderbilt 27-16 last Saturday, but they did not come close to covering BetOnline’s 27-point spread at home. They are now a perfect 4-0 SU on the year with a 3-1 record against the spread. The total stayed UNDER 53 in that game after going OVER in their first three contests. This week Mississippi will be on the road against No. 25 Florida as a seven-point favorite.

The biggest game on the SEC slate this upcoming Saturday sends No. 13 Alabama on the road to face the No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs as a 2.5-point underdog. The Crimson Tide fell out of one of those coveted top four spots in the national polls with their loss to Ole Miss two weeks ago and this past Saturday they hammered-out a 34-0 victory against Louisiana Monroe but they could not cover as 37.5-point favorites at home. Alabama is now 1-3 ATS this season.

Georgia continued to roll with a 48-6 rout against Southern U as a ridiculous 50-point home favorite. The Bulldogs are now 4-0 SU with a 2=2 record ATS. They come into this SEC showdown with a SU 3-2 edge in the last five meetings against the Tide while going 4-1 ATS. The total has gone OVER in all five games.

No. 9 LSU will square-off against the MAC’s Eastern Michigan Eagles as a heavy 46-point home favorite and No. 21 Mississippi State will face No. 14 Texas A&M in another big SEC showdown. The Bulldogs come into this game as seven-point road underdogs with the series tied 2-2 SU over the past four years. The Bulldogs have a 3-1 edge ATS and the total has gone OVER in three of the four meetings.

SEC Pick of the Week

I was able to even my mark on the year to 2-2 with my SEC “pick of the week” with the right call in Tennessee’s tight 28-27 loss to Florida as a two-point road underdog. This week I am turning my attention to the Eastern Kentucky at Kentucky game for my free pick.

The Wildcats’ impressive 21-13 win against Missouri last Saturday as three-point home favorites sets the stage for another big this week with a 5-1 record ATS in their last six nonconference games. Kentucky is 3-1 SU this season with a 2-2 record ATS.

Eastern Kentucky is off to a 2-1 SU start, but in its only game against a Division IA team it was wiped-out by North Carolina State 35-0 as a 24-point road underdog. BetOnline has yet to set the betting odds for this matchup, but I would expect this spread to be close to 30 points. The Colonels play out of the D-IAA Ohio Valley Conference and in last Saturday’s conference opener quarterback Bennie Coney tossed two touchdown throws to help lead his team to a 52-10 victory against Valparaiso.

Kentucky’s first big win of the season came against South Carolina in Week 2 with a 26-22 upset of the Gamecocks as a seven-point road underdog. Wildcats’ quarterback Patrick Towles has thrown for 824 yards and five touchdowns and so far his favorite receiver has been Garrett Johnson with 16 catches for 253 yards and a score. Stanley Williams is Kentucky’s leading rusher with 343 yards and a touchdown on 47 carries.

The Wildcats come into this game as heavy favorites and this one should not remain all that close for too long. With the meat of the SEC schedule right around the corner, look for Kentucky to use this opportunity to post one more lopsided win to try and catch some more attention as one of the lesser known teams in the nation’s toughest conference.