NFL Betting Predictions
NFL predictions are basically accurate and calculated guesses on what the outcome of a NFL match could be. Sports bettors everywhere have to do this on a daily basis in order to make the best possible decision as they wager on the NFL. There are a few ways to go about creating these accurate predictions of which teams will win. There are many Do’s and Do Not’s when it comes to NFL betting predictions, and we will go over a few here. Bettors should always try and find the best combination that works for them, as there is no perfect way of predicting the outcome of a sporting event. There are a few Do’s that bettors should keep in mind like learning the betting lines, using the information at hand, and money management and shopping around. The Do Not’s would include listening to the hype and betting based on emotions.
[DO] Learning the Lines
The first, and most basic aspect that every bettor needs to learn and understand re the NFL betting lines, and how they are made. Sportsbooks and other sports betting entities are not in the business of giving away money, which is why they base their predictions, such as the point spread, on valid and researched data; even if some of the decision comes from predicting the outcome. The betting lines are made with the purpose of splitting the bet action equally, but as time moves on, this may change in favor of one or the other team. It is important for bettors to know what it means when the odds change, and why they moved.
NFL betting lines are available at Bovada.lv
[DO] Useful Information
There is an enormous amount of information online, and it is as their disposal. Bettors need to learn to use this information to their advantage. Learn to use the Power Ratings, Team and Player Statistics, and the News and it can be the bettor’s greatest asset when it comes to predicting the outcome of a match.
Power Ratings
Power ratings are simply what the NFL ranks their teams with. There is an overall ranking, depending on how well they have performed the previous season, as well as how well they are performing during the current season. It is all based on their performance numbers, like Points Scored, Win to Loss ratio, and other factors that influence how well each team’s Offense and Defense is ranked. This is a good starting point for any bettor that is trying his hand at Handicapping.
Team and Player Statistics
Handicapping, for those that do not know what it is, is the study of everything related to a sport, in this case the NFL. One very important and dominating aspect of handicapping is the use of statistics in order to create an evidence-based prediction; numbers never lie. This is where learning to read and use team and player statistics becomes so important. Knowing how well a team or player performs based on certain characteristics, like skill, can be used to create a betting model that will help accurately predict a winner.
The News
This is one of the most overlooked mediums of information. News has all kinds of valuable information regarding the NFL. It shows the latest trades and injuries that a team may have, as well as weather reports. No one thinks that a weather report can help them make a better prediction, but that is where they are wrong. There have been many instances where weather has played a vital role in a team’s success or failure. Whether game day will be windy or snowing, it will affect the game and the player’s performance. A windy day could change how well the ball is thrown, or an icy day on how well a player grips the ball. Based on that information, a bettor will know what teams or players are better at those circumstances.
NFL news and stats can be found at Bovada.lv
[DO] Managing Money
Bettors need to understand that their bankroll is their lifeline and cannot be used incorrectly, not unless they want to be successful at the sports betting game. This is why there is a basic system that bettors can follow when wanting to wager on the NFL matchups. The general consensus on how much to wager on each bet is that it remain as constant as possible throughout the season, even during the playoffs and the Super Bowl.
On average, there are two types of bankrolls, since not everyone has the same potential and capital to put into their bankrolls. There is the high bankroll, which consists of $1,000 or more; while the low bankroll is that which has anything less than $1,000. For the high bankroll, it is suggested that they keep their wager amount between 3% and 5% of their total bankroll. As for the low bankroll the rules change since that low percentage won’t get the bettors a high enough payout. This is why low bankrolls should wager between 7% and 9% of their total bankroll on each bet.
Every bettor should make a decision on the amount they want to wager each bet, and should be prepared to stick to that amount. Even if the bettor gets a really good tip or if it’s the Super Bowl, the wager amount should remain the same; after all, the Super Bowl is just another match, there will be plenty more NFL matches in seasons to come. Betting on the NFL should be conducted as a business, but done for entertainment.
Shopping Around
Every bettor should shop around. What I mean is that they should not settle for the first online sportsbook that they come across. It is the same when purchasing any kind of item online, people should always look around and compare prices; the same goes for betting. Looking around for the best odds for any of the NFL matchups will help the bettor get the best bang for their buck.
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[DO NOT] Betting Based on Hype
This is a huge issue for bettors when it comes to betting on the NFL. The NFL is such a large enterprise and it has such a big fan-base, that sportsbooks and the news tends to reflect what the public opinion is, as fact. This is something bettors should ignore, for the most part at least. Just because a lot of people think or believe that a team will be the winner, does not make it a fact that they will. Bettors should rely mostly on their own research and judgment. I say mostly because no one knows everything, and relying on other sources could improve the chances of picking the right team.
[DO NOT] Betting Based on Emotions
The biggest problem bettors have are their emotion’s. Many of them let their emotions dictate what bet to make or on what team to wager on. Betting on instinct has never been proven to be smart, especially when money is on the line. Another problem bettors face is tilting. Tilting is the act of letting emotion’s get the best of a person. If a bettor loses a bet, they may feel compelled to win back the money they lost. This is a terrible idea, since betting like that will only spiral into more loss; which is why managing the bankroll is important. Bettors should know and understand that they will lose some of their bets, but they also need to keep in mind that staying calm and calculating the chances will get them more wins than losses. As long as they have a positive win to loss ratio, they are still making money.
