NFL Betting Strategy

NFL Betting Strategy

Sports bettors are always on the lookout for bigger and better tips on what to bet on during the NFL season. What they do not know is that they are, in fact, their best ally when it comes to placing bets. It will take time and some effort on their part, but if I know a thing or two about NFL fans is that they enjoy reading and analyzing the games, plays, and statistics. A bettor’s best chance at improving their own betting strategy is to take the best help from other strategies. There are various factors that go into a betting strategy, which are covering the spread, betting on the Home or Away team, and team rivalries.


Covering the Spread

This has always been a fan favorite, to be able to use the spread against the house and win the bet. A spread bet is a bet placed on either the Favorite to win by more than the value given or on the Underdog to win the match, or lose by no more than the value given. For example,

Houston Texans -3.5 -110
New England Patriots +3.5 -110

This means that the Texans have to beat the Patriots by more than 3.5 points to cover the spread. There are a few key numbers that bettors should always keep an eye out for when betting on the spread; these are 3, 7, and 10, as well as those .5 additions.

3 Points

This is a remarkably well know number in the NFL, as a large amount of games ended by that much; approximately 18%. If a bettor encounters this spread, they should take it as it has very good odds of occurring. Say the game ends and the Favorite won by 3 points, then the bettor simply gets their money back, but if it is above those 3 points, they win.

When a bettor finds a spread of 2.5 or 3.5, this means two different kinds of wagers they could take advantage of. A 2.5 spread is great for the bettor when they wager on the Favorite, as the odds of winning by more than 2.5 points is pretty high. However, if the spread is 3.5, the bettor may want to wager on the Underdog, seeing as a high percentage of game end with only a 3 point difference.

7 Points

There is also a high percent of games that end with a 7 point difference, as many games tend to end on one teams touchdown + extra point. Bettors have to be careful with this number, as it has a few tricks to it. The bettor needs to make sure that the Favorite has a good score record, and check to see if they also have a good 4th quarter record.

10 Points

These are usually reserved for when the sportsbooks think there will be a blowout. It tends to happen when a really good team and a really bad team face each other. This will let a bettor know to look at the better team’s stats to see if they have averaged wins of more than 10 points against similar teams. Either way it is a good bet to place.

More odds and point spreads at


Betting the Home or Away Team

There are many speculations about what to do when the teams play at home or on the road. These are a few strategies that have been shown to be right most of the time. There is no 100% sure strategy, but this will give a better some insight into how to bet on these teams.

Betting the Away Team

3rd Consecutive Road Game:

These may be far and few between, but a bettor should always look to bet against the teams that have been on the road for a long time, and the third game in a row that they play on the road is usually when the team is tired of being away. Playing constantly on the road is an exhaustive process, so take advantage of this.

2nd Consecutive Road Game:

For this to work, the bettor needs to bet against the Favorite Away team that is trying to cover the spread for the second straight game. It is very hard for a team to cover the spread consecutively when on the road.

Betting the Home Team

Home Team Advantage:

When there is a close match, and the point spread is -1 to -2.5, always bet on the Home team, as they have the slightest advantage over the other team.

Home Underdog:

Bettors should take a chance and wager on the teams that won their previous Away game, while being the Underdog, as they are now on home turf with excellent motivation.

Won Last Two Games:

Bettors should wager on the Home team that has been able to win two previous games as the Underdog. The reason is because the Underdog has been winning matches, they are fully motivated and seem capable enough to win games as the Underdog.


Team Rivalries

A bettor should always know about the team rivalries that exist between NFL teams. This may not be as prominent as in College football, but it still holds a place of reason. There are many rivalries in the NFL such as:

Indianapolis Colts


New England Patriots
Oakland Raiders


Kansas City Chiefs
Washington Redskins


Dallas Cowboys

As a rule of thumb, bettors should always bet on the Underdog when these rivalry matches occur, since they tend to be close and there is extra motivation on the Underdog to win. This obviously only works if both rival teams are have a somewhat equal performance; it would not work on teams that are far superior to their rivals.